The New York Times reported on 30 March that as the date for foreign forces' withdrawal from Afghanistan draws nearer, the anxiety among Afghans has increased. During 2011, developed countries dealt with more than 30,400 asylum applications from Afghans, the highest number in ten years, and more than five times the number of applications in 2005.
Now imagine summer 2014. The Americans, along with the rest of NATO-led coalition forces, are no longer responsible for security in that godforsaken country. The Afghan security forces don't show any trend that would make them better than a joke in keeping the peace at that time. Pakistan will continue with its game, though this time perfectly on-stage rather than from behind the scene. Other regional players will step in... Will 2014 look similar to 1999? Quite possibly, except that this time the stakes will be much higher and the chess pieces more numerous and more fluid.
The Americans don't understand Afghanistan. The value they bring to the table has declined dramatically over the years, and with their purses empty, they will not bother to look at Afghanistan beyond the critical counter-terrorism prism. It makes sense for the US to withdraw. But those who think that America's presence in Afghanistan is a cause for the region's afflictions should think again. America's contribution is diminishing, but its absence will be a nightmare.
Pakistan, and most Pakistanis, feels that with the Americans gone, security will increase and the region's turmoil put to rest. Not likely. The Taliban will shower pride on the new feather in their hat that they survived the American onslaught for almost 13 years - that after the defeating the Soviets. A worthy note in anyone's CV, and certainly no reason to go back to the caves - sorry, I meant villages. The Taliban will want power... and more and more of it. They won't get it, and not just because of the Great Gamers Camp 2 (i.e. India, Iran and Russia). Afghanistan version 2.014 is a much more serious international agenda item, unlike Afghanistan version 1.999. A world power may have withdrawn its military, but not its attention, especially because Afghanistan's status as a terrorism breeding grounds has yet to subside.
What can be done? Pakistan needs to feel more of a stake in supporting an Afghanistan that is not entirely run by Pathans. The others need to accept that Pashtuns, being the largest ethnic group in the country, have to have a commensurate share in power. A solution? A weak, ethnically balanced and constitutionally-rotational central government, and more power to Afghan provincial systems, which will actually improve penetration and (fingers crossed) governance on the ground. Pakistan will be happy. The Americans happier since stronger localized setups will likely have a better chance in keeping out terrorists with international reach.
